Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29d3…ccf6 sports 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$432 (+4%) realized +$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%88W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$497
14 days+$84
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$369
other 17% −$391
world 2% +$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -46.2% -51.3% 22% 22% -42.1%
≤30d 177 +6.0% -4.1% 44% 44% -7.3%
≤90d 198 +6.2% -3.9% 44% 44% -7.7%
all 198 +6.2% -3.9% 44% 44% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 44% -7.7%
10% -13.1% 44% -16.5%
15% -21.5% 44% -24.6%
20% -29.2% 44% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$61 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses88 / 110
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions2
Markets (closed)198 / 200
History coverage36d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 46¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 +$45 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -99%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $85 −$84 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$45 +114%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$58 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$22 +119%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $37 +$45 +123%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$79 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $107 +$122 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $57 +$51 +89%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $36 +$36 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $35 +$45 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $16 +$18 +110%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$145 +143%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$19 +101%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $39 +$44 +114%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $46 +$62 +134%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $35 +$62 +180%
Spread: Angola (-1.5) Jun 09 $18 +$32 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $35 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $36 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $71 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $26 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 41h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $25 42h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $30 45h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $19 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $18 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $40 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $10 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $21 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $14 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $40 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $56 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $38 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $40 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $82 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $82 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 44¢ $37 4d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY Top Esports Challenger 25¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $18 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $109 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $30 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $107 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $108 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $19 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $38 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.77 · official $69.78 (match) · 415 history records