Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29d2…473a crypto 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+3%) realized +$131 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%93W / 89L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$45
14 days+$68
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$29
other 36% +$65
sports 4% +$34
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 38% -8.4%
≤30d 182 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 39% -7.9%
≤90d 182 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 39% -7.9%
all 182 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 39% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 39% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -16.7%
15% -34.9% 25% -24.8%
20% -41.2% 20% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses93 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)182 / 188
History coverage15d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$14 +53%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $132 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $214 +$47 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $137 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $131 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$25 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.01 · official $14.01 (match) · 544 history records