Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29cf…2d4c politics 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$173 (+0%) realized +$171 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%26W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,664per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$39
14 days−$232
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$197
other 35% −$427
sports 13% +$740
economics 2% −$5
world 2% +$1
culture 1% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -7.1% -15.9% 7% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 133 -10.6% -19.1% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 165 -3.0% -12.2% 16% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 11% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 11% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 10% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,334) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$14 · ×5.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,664
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $181 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,501 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,652 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,155 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,495 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,660 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,081 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,374 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,153 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,919 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,324 −$5 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,160 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $1,564 −$2 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $6,393 −$7 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,307 −$43 -1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $3,040 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,117 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,984 −$7 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $54 +$73 +134%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,334 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,906 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $524 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $903 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,554 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $413 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,932 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,365 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $468 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $469 3h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 21h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 23h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,383 23h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,386 26h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,218 42h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,219 45h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $993 46h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $994 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,410 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,412 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,312 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,313 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,311 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,313 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,287 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,289 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,343 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,121 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.45 · official $182.45 (match) · 599 history records