Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ce…63c2 crypto 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$185 (-9%) realized −$186 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate51%172W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$44
14 days−$54
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$280
other 5% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -53.3% -57.7% 40% 33% -29.1%
≤30d 191 -29.1% -35.8% 42% 36% -22.8%
≤90d 225 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 37% -24.1%
all 334 -21.0% -28.5% 51% 28% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 28% -20.2%
10% -35.4% 10% -27.8%
15% -41.6% 4% -34.8%
20% -47.3% 2% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses172 / 162
Open positions2
Markets (closed)334 / 336
History coverage154d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.54 · official $1.55 (match) · 1426 history records