Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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29 0x29ce…b53b crypto 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,045 (-1%) realized −$1,055 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%253W / 12L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$703per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$624
7 days+$64
14 days−$358
30 days−$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,355
sports 22% +$1,165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+82.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +453.1% +400.4% 98% 23% -6.7%
≤30d 179 +150.9% +127.0% 96% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 265 +102.2% +82.9% 95% 5% -9.6%
all 265 +102.2% +82.9% 95% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +82.9% 5% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +65.4% 5% -18.2%
15% +49.4% 5% -26.1%
20% +34.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +204% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$340 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$2,474
Realized−$1,055
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses253 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)265 / 267
History coverage50d
Avg bet$703
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,477 $1,477 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $980 $991 +$11 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $680 +$27 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $385 +$20 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $385 +$20 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $686 +$14 +2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $680 +$28 +4%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $388 +$16 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $392 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $990 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $595 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,486 +$12 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $673 +$28 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $673 +$34 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $690 +$9 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $673 +$34 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $686 +$14 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $673 +$34 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $685 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,475 +$31 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,486 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,487 −$1,009 -68%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $490 +$15 +3%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $481 +$20 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $486 +$20 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $490 +$15 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $486 +$20 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $486 +$20 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,475 +$30 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,486 +$12 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $490 +$15 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $490 +$10 +2%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $481 +$25 +5%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $481 +$20 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $392 +$8 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $485 +$15 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $490 +$15 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,486 +$14 +1%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $481 +$24 +5%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $481 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,486 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,481 +$26 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $495 +$4 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $490 +$9 +2%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $981 +$24 +2%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $481 +$25 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $680 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $706 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 95¢ $385 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $404 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 95¢ $385 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $400 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 96¢ $388 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $680 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1,479 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $686 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $392 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $982 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $602 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $957 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $542 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $595 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 95¢ $673 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $409 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $250 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $41 26h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 96¢ $673 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 98¢ $690 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $990 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $705 27h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 95¢ $673 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 95¢ $673 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $685 28h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $686 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,474.01 · official $2,467.15 (match) · 904 history records