Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29cd…4663 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$4
other 24% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 4% −$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 13 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 0% -8.7%
all 38 -2.2% -11.6% 47% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $34 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $76 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $8 $0 -5%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 31 $9 $0 -5%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $13 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $34 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $44 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $44 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $44 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $44 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $38 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $38 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $39 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $34 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $33 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $34 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records