Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

29 0x29cb…5645 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2,554 (+12%) realized −$248 · open +$2,802

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,626per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit23%portable

Net worth$23,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-59.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+35.1%	+22.3%	100%	100%	+22.3%
≤30d	3	-55.0%	-59.2%	33%	33%	-30.7%
≤90d	3	-55.0%	-59.2%	33%	33%	-30.7%
all	3	-55.0%	-59.2%	33%	33%	-30.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.2%	33%	-30.7%
10%	-63.1%	33%	-37.4%
15%	-66.7%	0%	-43.4%
20%	-70.0%	0%	-49.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$120 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$23,108

Realized−$248

Unrealized+$2,802

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions10

Markets (closed)3 / 13

History coverage29d

Avg bet$1,626

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	84¢	87¢	$11,907	$12,356	+$449 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	41¢	56¢	$5,812	$8,008	+$2,196 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	24¢	$619	$906	+$287 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$586	$605	+$19 (+3%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$399	$402	+$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	19¢	$387	$375	−$11 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	6¢	$287	$178	−$109 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	11¢	$166	$112	−$54 (-33%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$44	$64	+$20 (+46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$313	+$110	+35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$143	−$140	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$403	1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$424	1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	74¢	$112	7h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	88¢	$353	22h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	29h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	73¢	$202	29h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	88¢	$843	30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$383	30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$129	14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$61	14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	37¢	$82	15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$98	15d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$26	15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$199	15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$170	15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$330	15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$299	15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$13	27d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$175	27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$197	27d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$19	27d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	85¢	$1,240	27d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	84¢	$1,126	27d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	84¢	$6	27d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	84¢	$1,409	27d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	83¢	$59	27d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	83¢	$3,605	27d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	BUY Yes	41¢	$5,949	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,107.89 · official $23,116.88 (match) · 59 history records