Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

29 0x29ca…2b2f economics 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$263 (+22%) realized +$265 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$401per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+22.0%	+10.4%	50%	50%	+10.4%
≤30d	2	+22.0%	+10.4%	50%	50%	+10.4%
≤90d	2	+22.0%	+10.4%	50%	50%	+10.4%
all	2	+22.0%	+10.4%	50%	50%	+10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.4%	50%	+10.4%
10%	-0.2%	50%	-0.2%
15%	-9.8%	50%	-9.8%
20%	-18.7%	50%	-18.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$499 vs −$279 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$265

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage90d

Avg bet$401

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	No	40¢	40¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Jun 25	$500	−$279	-56%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Jun 25	$500	+$499	+100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	SELL Yes	12¢	$221	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	40¢	$204	1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	SELL Yes	79¢	$999	1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$500	90d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$500	90d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.50 · official $197.50 (match) · 5 history records