Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ca…643c sports 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%23W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$6
politics 23% −$3
other 19% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
economics 8% −$2
culture 4% $0
world 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 67% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 0% -10.3%
all 221 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses23 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)221 / 221
History coverage174d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 221 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $46 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $139 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $241 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $336 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $32 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $19 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $13 5h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $44 12d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $45 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 24d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 37d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $43 118d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1 119d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 119d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $2 119d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $2 119d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 96¢ $2 119d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $2 119d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $2 119d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $2 119d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $3 119d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $3 119d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $43 119d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $45 119d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $45 119d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 119d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 119d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $37 119d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $38 119d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $46 119d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $46 119d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $43 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 899 history records