Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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29 0x29ca…fce7 crypto 802 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$761 (-3%) realized −$763 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%685W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$24
14 days−$706
30 days−$675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$104
tech 6% −$279
other 3% −$358
politics 2% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -3.6% -12.8% 84% 18% -9.0%
≤30d 684 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 21% -12.0%
≤90d 801 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 21% -12.8%
all 801 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 21% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 21% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 9% -21.1%
15% -27.9% 6% -28.7%
20% -35.0% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$763
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses685 / 116
Open positions1
Markets (closed)801 / 802
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $121 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $121 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $80 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $96 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $89 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $129 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.76 · official $31.76 (match) · 3500 history records