Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29c6…6562 sports 36 markets active 13h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$420 (-16%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate86%31W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$469
other 39% +$42
crypto 8% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.9% -14.8% 86% 3% -24.1%
≤30d 36 -5.9% -14.8% 86% 3% -24.1%
≤90d 36 -5.9% -14.8% 86% 3% -24.1%
all 36 -5.9% -14.8% 86% 3% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 3% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 0% -31.4%
15% -30.4% 0% -38.0%
20% -37.3% 0% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$114 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses31 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) Jun 20 $48 +$5 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $393 −$392 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $45 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $48 +$5 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 3 Athletic Club? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 2 Athletic Club? Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $50 −$7 -14%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 2 Athletic Club? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 3 - 0 Athletic Club? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $48 +$5 +10%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $97 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $48 +$5 +10%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $280 +$27 +10%
Raphinha: 2+ assists Jun 20 $99 +$5 +5%
Éderson: 1+ goals Jun 20 $49 +$5 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $97 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $98 +$8 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $97 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $98 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $148 +$9 +6%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $99 +$7 +7%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $47 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $393 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $20 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $45 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? SELL No 82¢ $43 15h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $0 15h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $24 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $20 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $25 15h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 96¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 96¢ $20 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 96¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 95¢ $50 15h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 2 Athletic Club? SELL No 99¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 3 - 0 Athletic Club? SELL No 99¢ $51 16h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 16h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $102 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 3 Athletic Club? BUY No 99¢ $49 19h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 3 - 0 Athletic Club? BUY No 98¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 2 Athletic Club? BUY No 96¢ $48 19h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 2 Athletic Club? BUY No 96¢ $48 19h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $48 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 91¢ $280 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 28h
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) BUY UD Almería 91¢ $48 28h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 91¢ $48 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records