Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

29 0x29c4…40f6 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1

7 days−$1

14 days−$14

30 days−$14

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-0.6%	-10.1%	40%	0%	-10.7%
≤30d	13	-17.0%	-24.9%	38%	8%	-20.0%
≤90d	19	-17.8%	-25.6%	42%	21%	-18.7%
all	19	-17.8%	-25.6%	42%	21%	-18.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.6%	21%	-18.7%
10%	-32.8%	11%	-26.5%
15%	-39.3%	5%	-33.6%
20%	-45.2%	0%	-40.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -24% → late -13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.25 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage36d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	57¢	55¢	$17	$16	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Jun 20	$10	−$1	-10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 20	$19	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 20	$18	−$1	-4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 16	$3	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 11	$21	−$7	-36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$1	+18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET	Jun 11	$16	−$2	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET	Jun 11	$7	−$2	-28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 11	$4	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 11	$6	$0	+5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET	Jun 10	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9?	Jun 09	$5	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	May 21	$0	$0	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	May 21	$0	$0	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET	May 21	$2	+$1	+32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	May 21	$12	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	May 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	May 21	$3	+$1	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	56¢	$11	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	24¢	$1	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	29¢	$2	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	56¢	$11	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	56¢	$11	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	24¢	$1	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	29¢	$2	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	57¢	$28	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	SELL No	42¢	$42	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	71¢	$7	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	BUY No	43¢	$43	1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	76¢	$7	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	72¢	$5	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$4	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$2	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	61¢	$6	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$3	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	57¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	57¢	$3	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$5	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$4	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$2	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$3	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$4	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.50 · official $16.50 (match) · 87 history records