Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
29 0x29c3…68f2 politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% $0
other 15% $0
economics 8% $0
world 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage83d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $111 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $111 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $224 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $110 14h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 12d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $110 15d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $111 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 33d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $111 36d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $111 37d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 41d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 41d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $111 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $111 42d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 61d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 61d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $112 65d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $112 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $112 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $112 70d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 82d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records