Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29c3…11dd
politics · 74 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage520d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 4 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $87 −$5 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $49 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -4%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $5 $0 -7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$5
politics 26% +$2
sports 13% −$3
other 13% +$2
economics 5% +$1
finance 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $1 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $35 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $34 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $12 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $19 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $29 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $10 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 55 -3.7% -12.8% 35% 4% -9.7%
all 70 -1.9% -11.3% 37% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.89 · official $6.95 (match) · 326 history records