Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29c1…b54e
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$56 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage55d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $33 +$47 +145%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 25 $43 −$41 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $30 +$13 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$9
world 16% +$17
crypto 14% −$41
politics 13% −$40
sports 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -13.3% -21.6% 43% 43% -30.9%
all 7 -13.3% -21.6% 43% 43% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 43% -30.9%
10% -29.1% 29% -37.5%
15% -35.9% 29% -43.6%
20% -42.2% 14% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.59 · official $65.59 (match) · 13 history records