Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bf…08a1 other 1046 markets active 0h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$446 (-2%) realized −$412 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%371W / 630L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$363
7 days+$393
14 days+$427
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$171
sports 22% −$255
politics 2% −$66
world 1% +$28
economics 1% +$46
tech 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$33
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +15.6% +4.6% 48% 48% +18.2%
≤30d 190 +5.7% -4.3% 44% 44% -3.2%
≤90d 436 +3.0% -6.8% 37% 37% -4.0%
all 1001 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 37% -10.9%
10% -20.7% 36% -19.4%
15% -28.4% 33% -27.2%
20% -35.4% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$1,160
Realized−$412
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses371 / 630
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1001 / 1046
History coverage692d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $220 $213 −$7 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $205 $211 +$6 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $98 $149 +$51 (+52%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $106 $123 +$17 (+16%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $57 $58 +$1 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $51 −$5 (-9%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Pedri: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Cucurella: 1+ goals Yes 14¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals Yes 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots Jun 15 $31 +$23 +72%
Yan Diomandé: 2+ shots Jun 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 15 $6 +$26 +444%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 +$11 +137%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 +$18 +444%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$40 +76%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 +$14 +177%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 +$31 +150%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 +$59 +57%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Yan Diomandé: 3+ shots Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$70 +1356%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +189%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $7 +$9 +123%
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ shots Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ shots Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Donyell Malen: 3+ shots Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 +$4 +103%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $23 +$16 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 +$12 +121%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Jonathan Tah: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Arda Güler: 3+ shots Jun 14 $16 +$10 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 0m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $5 1m
Pedri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2m
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $7 3m
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3m
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4m
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4m
Cucurella: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists SELL Yes 95¢ $31 12h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $19 12h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists SELL Yes 95¢ $22 12h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $92 13h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $22 13h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $52 13h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $4 13h
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $6 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $161 14h
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $5 14h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $3 14h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 14h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $8 14h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $8 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,160.31 · official $1,160.31 (match) · 2076 history records