Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bf…e7e0 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$269 (-7%) realized −$288 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$576
14 days+$576
30 days+$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$233
other 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.1% +26.8% 50% 50% +51.6%
≤30d 2 +40.1% +26.8% 50% 50% +51.6%
≤90d 23 -28.6% -35.4% 26% 26% -16.7%
all 23 -28.6% -35.4% 26% 26% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 26% -16.7%
10% -41.6% 26% -24.7%
15% -47.2% 17% -32.0%
20% -52.4% 13% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$95 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage84d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 24¢ $281 $300 +$19 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $350 −$343 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $510 +$919 +180%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 03 $224 −$144 -64%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $54 −$53 -99%
Clermont Foot 63 vs. SC Bastia: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $100 −$45 -45%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $75 −$74 -98%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $150 −$148 -99%
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $150 −$17 -11%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Apr 23 $150 +$105 +70%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $66 +$22 +34%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $150 −$34 -23%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $140 +$108 +77%
Moreirense FC vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $150 −$89 -59%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Apr 19 $150 −$46 -31%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $190 −$5 -3%
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $200 +$61 +31%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 06 $59 −$58 -98%
Tromsø IL vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $61 −$2 -4%
Hungary vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Mar 30 $200 −$104 -52%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 3.5 Mar 29 $221 +$94 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $288 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $350 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $510 4d
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $80 48d
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $224 48d
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $54 57d
Clermont Foot 63 vs. SC Bastia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $55 57d
Clermont Foot 63 vs. SC Bastia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $100 57d
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $75 57d
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $150 58d
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $133 58d
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $150 58d
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $66 59d
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $150 59d
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $116 59d
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $150 59d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 79¢ $248 60d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $140 60d
Moreirense FC vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $61 60d
Moreirense FC vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $150 61d
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 46¢ $104 61d
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $150 61d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 63¢ $185 62d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $190 62d
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $261 62d
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $200 62d
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $250 66d
Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $59 75d
Tromsø IL vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $59 75d
Tromsø IL vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.16 · official $300.16 (match) · 41 history records