Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bc…e100 other 557 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$273 (-6%) realized −$283 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%240W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$15
14 days−$39
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$97
weather 36% −$80
world 8% −$105
politics 5% −$13
crypto 4% −$38
finance 2% +$10
sports 1% −$18
economics 0% −$20
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -16.3% -24.3% 49% 35% -11.6%
≤30d 254 -22.7% -30.0% 46% 33% -16.4%
≤90d 534 -18.6% -26.3% 45% 33% -17.2%
all 534 -18.6% -26.3% 45% 33% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 33% -17.2%
10% -33.4% 23% -25.1%
15% -39.8% 17% -32.3%
20% -45.7% 14% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses240 / 294
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)534 / 557
History coverage81d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 87¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+181%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-76%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 +$26 +612%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $18 −$3 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$9 -21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$4 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $35 +$8 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$13 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$16 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 11m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 11m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 69¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 95¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 89¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $22 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $16 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $2 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 3¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $8 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.86 · official $108.86 (match) · 1313 history records