Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bc…4016 crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$30
politics 6% −$34
other 3% −$8
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 42% -9.4%
≤30d 73 -11.3% -19.7% 49% 42% -10.3%
≤90d 73 -11.3% -19.7% 49% 42% -10.3%
all 73 -11.3% -19.7% 49% 42% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -10.3%
10% -27.4% 33% -18.9%
15% -34.4% 25% -26.7%
20% -40.9% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)73 / 78
History coverage16d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 56¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 75¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $24 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -52%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 22 $6 −$2 -37%
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 22 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $29 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.25 · official $6.20 (match) · 172 history records