Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29bc…e830 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$16
other 13% −$1
sports 2% −$16
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 42 -4.6% -13.7% 10% 2% -10.9%
all 54 -4.0% -13.1% 11% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage617d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $35 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 09 $3 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $23 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 2h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $4 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 14d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 21d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.44 · official $26.44 (match) · 325 history records