Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
29 0x29bb…3aa6 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$1,018 · open +$967
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$3,748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$967
world 1% −$42
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.2% -40.5% 50% 50% -42.2%
≤30d 2 -34.2% -40.5% 50% 50% -42.2%
≤90d 2 -34.2% -40.5% 50% 50% -42.2%
all 3 -56.1% -60.3% 33% 33% -88.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.3% 33% -88.6%
10% -64.1% 33% -89.7%
15% -67.6% 0% -90.7%
20% -70.8% 0% -91.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$3,748
Realized−$1,018
Unrealized+$967
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage114d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $875 $1,861 +$986 (+113%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $800 $793 −$7 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $810 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $889 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 48¢ $176 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 47¢ $42 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,748.26 · official $3,748.26 (match) · 10 history records