Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29b6…a2b6
crypto · 255 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$162 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$162 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses179 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)253 / 255
History coverage68d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 253 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 8? No 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 9? No 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 28 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 28 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 27 $12 +$23 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 20 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 20 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 11 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 11 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 08 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 08 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 05 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$160
other 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $14 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $36 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 23 -18.6% -26.3% 65% 26% -20.5%
≤90d 253 -6.0% -14.9% 71% 34% -13.7%
all 253 -6.0% -14.9% 71% 34% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 34% -13.7%
10% -23.1% 19% -22.0%
15% -30.5% 11% -29.5%
20% -37.3% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.30 · official $38.30 (match) · 536 history records