Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29b5…9a7d sports 13 markets active 5d ago coverage 625d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+4%) realized +$64 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$204
sports 44% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 5 +9.8% -0.6% 40% 40% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 40% +7.8%
10% -10.1% 40% -2.6%
15% -18.8% 40% -12.0%
20% -26.8% 40% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$54 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage625d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $39 +$24 (+158%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-66%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-82%)
Will annual inflation be 4.5% in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-88%)
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? Apr 24 $128 −$123 -96%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 07 $62 +$96 +155%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $170 +$147 +87%
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $45 −$37 -83%
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? Oct 22 $24 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.5% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.19 · official $59.19 (match) · 199 history records