Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29b5…29ec crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$2
crypto 20% $0
other 7% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 0% -10.6%
all 33 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage108d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $101 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $432 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $99 −$14 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 1? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 19? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 8? Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $226 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $16 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $170 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $142 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $144 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $139 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $146 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $14 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $170 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $14 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $92 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $110 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $110 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records