Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
29 0x29b4…58c9 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$187 (+4%) realized +$190 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days−$254
14 days−$254
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$513
sports 18% −$215
economics 3% −$140
culture 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.7% -44.5% 25% 25% -53.3%
≤30d 4 -38.7% -44.5% 25% 25% -53.3%
≤90d 26 -40.6% -46.3% 27% 23% -33.4%
all 37 +14.9% +4.0% 35% 32% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 32% -5.4%
10% -6.0% 32% -14.4%
15% -15.1% 32% -22.7%
20% -23.4% 32% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$87 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage322d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$108 +71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $462 −$259 -56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $222 −$217 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Poland end in a draw? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Apr 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 15 $60 +$52 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $166 +$132 +79%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $100 +$86 +86%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-04? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Serbia vs. Albania end in a draw? Mar 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? Mar 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fenerbahce vs. Nice end in a draw? Mar 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Mar 31 $70 +$5 +8%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? Mar 31 $222 −$222 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw? Mar 31 $10 +$34 +344%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $500 +$484 +97%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Albania win on 2025-10-11? Dec 20 $44 +$215 +488%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? Oct 04 $20 +$71 +354%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? Oct 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Qarabag vs. FC Kopenhagen end in a draw? Oct 02 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? Oct 02 $135 −$135 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Oct 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw? Oct 01 $100 +$316 +316%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $100 +$354 +354%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $100 +$69 +70%
Will Galatasaray win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $77 +$328 +426%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $96 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $260 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $67 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $194 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 49d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $222 63d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $66 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $166 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 69d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 69d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 70d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 70d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.96 · official $307.96 (match) · 92 history records