Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x29ae…c79f crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$750 (+24%) realized +$1,246 · open −$496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate75%21W / 7L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days+$858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$100
crypto 27% −$475
politics 14% +$1,037
sports 7% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.2% +8.7% 89% 89% -13.5%
≤30d 27 +25.8% +13.8% 78% 63% +21.5%
≤90d 28 +21.3% +9.8% 75% 61% +15.8%
all 28 +21.3% +9.8% 75% 61% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 61% +15.8%
10% -0.7% 25% +4.7%
15% -10.3% 21% -5.4%
20% -19.1% 18% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$147 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,246
Unrealized−$496
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses21 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage48d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $497 $1 −$496 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $554 −$550 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $186 +$20 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $156 +$31 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $225 −$222 -99%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $201 +$1,258 +626%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 18 $127 −$122 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $507 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $353 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $186 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $156 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $225 28d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL No 100¢ $1,459 28d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 1¢ $1 28d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president BUY Yes 1¢ $23 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.71 (match) · 65 history records