Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

29 0x29ab…dbe5 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$187 (-28%) realized −$159 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day15.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-41.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-35.5%	-41.7%	26%	26%	-39.8%
≤30d	19	-35.5%	-41.7%	26%	26%	-39.8%
≤90d	19	-35.5%	-41.7%	26%	26%	-39.8%
all	19	-35.5%	-41.7%	26%	26%	-39.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.7%	26%	-39.8%
10%	-47.3%	21%	-45.6%
15%	-52.4%	16%	-50.9%
20%	-57.0%	16%	-55.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -47% → late -26% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$159

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage3d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day15.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	Karmine Corp	14¢	0¢	$28	$0	−$28 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 27	$16	−$15	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 27	$16	−$15	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 27	$16	+$15	+95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 27	$16	−$13	-81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 27	$16	+$14	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Jun 27	$16	−$15	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 27	$21	−$10	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$3	-63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 26	$8	−$4	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 26	$4	+$4	+100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 26	$29	−$24	-84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 26	$14	−$14	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 26	$36	−$25	-68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 26	$36	−$35	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 26	$103	−$17	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 26	$41	+$14	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 26	$114	−$30	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 26	$82	−$25	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$11	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	BUY Karmine Corp	14¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$16	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$16	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$30	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$16	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$16	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$29	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$16	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$16	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$21	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	SELL Up	12¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	SELL Down	28¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$8	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$8	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$4	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	SELL Down	9¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$29	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$14	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Down	16¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$36	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$36	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$75	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$27	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$40	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Down	23¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$36	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$41	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 42 history records