Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

29 0x29aa…6286 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$13 (+7%) realized +$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%6W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-0.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+10.0%	-0.5%	100%	33%	-0.5%
≤30d	6	+10.0%	-0.5%	100%	33%	-0.5%
≤90d	6	+10.0%	-0.5%	100%	33%	-0.5%
all	6	+10.0%	-0.5%	100%	33%	-0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.5%	33%	-0.5%
10%	-10.0%	0%	-10.0%
15%	-18.7%	0%	-18.7%
20%	-26.7%	0%	-26.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses6 / 0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 17	$35	+$8	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 17	$35	+$2	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 17	$35	+$2	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 17	$35	+$2	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 17	$29	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 16	$28	+$3	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$26	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$9	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$35	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$35	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$29	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$2	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$16	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$10	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records