Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29a9…5e9e sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,385 (+18%) realized +$5,385 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$759
7 days−$1,427
14 days+$2,982
30 days+$4,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$4,859
other 33% −$151
crypto 7% +$1,467
economics 2% −$564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.0% -29.5% 25% 25% -40.0%
≤30d 33 +19.0% +7.7% 48% 45% +27.7%
≤90d 67 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 37% -1.3%
all 70 +5.1% -4.9% 41% 40% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 40% +7.8%
10% -14.0% 40% -2.5%
15% -22.3% 40% -11.9%
20% -29.9% 39% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$549) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$645 vs −$319 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage181d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 24 $204 −$178 -87%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $124 −$122 -99%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $584 −$460 -79%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $154 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $174 +$139 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $523 +$456 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $197 +$647 +329%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $251 −$251 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $495 −$143 -29%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $192 −$2 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $443 −$432 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $761 −$750 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 Jun 15 $510 +$931 +183%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $427 +$1,103 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$234 +186%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $355 −$350 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,104 +$2,242 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $105 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$55 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$45 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $126 −$120 -95%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $254 +$250 +98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $545 +$5 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $259 +$283 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $838 +$418 +50%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $599 +$504 +84%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $148 −$146 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $418 −$411 -98%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $350 −$345 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $598 −$357 -60%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $256 −$256 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $800 +$661 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 25 $650 +$615 +95%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $998 +$644 +64%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $480 −$480 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 22 $335 +$366 +109%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $954 +$2,380 +249%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $230 −$230 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 21 $240 +$511 +213%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 20 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 04 $549 −$549 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 02 $499 +$396 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 4¢ $26 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $124 41h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 7¢ $124 42h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $154 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $313 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $174 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 97¢ $979 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $523 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $843 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $91 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $153 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $165 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $86 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 16¢ $154 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 48¢ $145 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 52¢ $344 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $92 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $98 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $309 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $192 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $350 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $443 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $761 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 24¢ $235 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 94¢ $1,530 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 35¢ $510 10d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 18¢ $92 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records