Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29a8…5e7f other 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5
politics 21% −$21
other 15% +$11
sports 15% −$7
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% −$21
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 62% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 20 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 34 -1.4% -10.7% 26% 3% -10.0%
all 89 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 51
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage465d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $177 +$2 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $159 +$2 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $94 −$4 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $162 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $280 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $161 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $307 +$12 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $157 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $76 −$7 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $152 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $128 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $159 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $159 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $30 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $117 −$4 -4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $42 +$18 +43%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $158 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $33 −$21 -64%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $306 −$5 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $998 −$15 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $1,074 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $1,004 −$8 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $34 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 17 $1 $0 -24%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $179 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $177 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $79 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $81 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $139 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $20 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $90 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $48 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $134 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $121 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $119 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $119 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $107 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $161 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $161 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $161 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records