Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29a1…f51a crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%69W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$11
other 12% −$5
sports 7% +$9
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.5% +3.6% 72% 44% +4.3%
≤30d 127 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 127 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 40% -13.8%
all 127 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 40% -13.8%
10% -20.5% 31% -22.0%
15% -28.2% 24% -29.6%
20% -35.2% 22% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses69 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 +$1 +123%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records