Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29a1…5645 world 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$1,614 (-14%) realized −$1,591 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%117W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day60.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$939
sports 31% −$315
other 6% +$60
finance 4% +$24
politics 1% −$7
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +18.9% +7.6% 48% 30% +3.4%
≤30d 137 +48.2% +34.1% 61% 44% +7.7%
≤90d 197 +48.0% +33.9% 59% 46% -6.6%
all 197 +48.0% +33.9% 59% 46% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.9% 46% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here +21.1% 31% -15.6%
15% +9.4% 24% -23.7%
20% -1.3% 18% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,787
Realized−$1,591
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses117 / 80
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions53
Markets (closed)197 / 250
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day60.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $355 $364 +$9 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $343 $357 +$14 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $201 $232 +$31 (+15%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+5%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $42 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 85¢ 97¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 51¢ 44¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $19 $25 +$7 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 67¢ 70¢ $23 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 37¢ 30¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-18%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 34¢ 17¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $59 +$12 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $12 −$1 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $36 −$8 -22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $59 +$44 +74%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $60 +$8 +13%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $8 +$10 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $67 +$11 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $37 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $121 +$23 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $7 +$10 +138%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $28 +$8 +28%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$8 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 +$14 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $27 51m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $14 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 37¢ $7 1h
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 43¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 3h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 56¢ $1 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 11¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $12 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $3 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $12 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $12 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $16 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $16 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $4 6h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $2 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $6 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $9 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $9 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,787.21 · official $1,785.17 (match) · 3500 history records