Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x299c…d85e other 823 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,634 (+11%) realized +$9,778 · open −$144
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate95%747W / 39L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day74.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$593
14 days+$844
30 days+$7,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$6,825
politics 13% +$283
tech 10% +$504
finance 5% +$210
world 5% +$95
sports 1% +$40
economics 1% +$22
crypto 0% +$7
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +3.5% -6.4% 96% 14% -4.3%
≤30d 649 +9.0% -1.4% 95% 15% -1.2%
≤90d 786 +11.7% +1.1% 95% 15% -1.6%
all 786 +11.7% +1.1% 95% 15% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 15% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 7% -11.0%
15% -17.4% 4% -19.6%
20% -25.5% 2% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$25 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.37 per $1 lost it wins $9.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,712
Realized+$9,778
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses747 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions39
Markets (closed)786 / 823
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$111
Trades / day74.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 786 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $141 $143 +$2 (+1%)
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $129 $130 +$2 (+1%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? No 90¢ 66¢ $165 $120 −$45 (-27%)
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? No 66¢ 57¢ $123 $107 −$16 (-13%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? No 90¢ 58¢ $95 $62 −$33 (-35%)
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+8%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B? No 80¢ 43¢ $64 $35 −$30 (-46%)
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week? Yes 86¢ 93¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $7.6B? No 96¢ 90¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 18 $57 −$15 -27%
Will "Policy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 18 $66 +$1 +2%
Will "Fraud" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will "Hormuz" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 18 $71 +$3 +4%
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $148 +$3 +2%
Will "Riot" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 18 $150 +$3 +2%
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 18 $147 +$3 +2%
Will "Siri" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Will "Red State" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 17 $263 +$7 +3%
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $132 +$2 +1%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $148 +$1 +1%
Will "Cuba" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Will "Sydney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 17 $94 +$1 +1%
Will "Blue State" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan Jun 17 $263 +$7 +3%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $137 +$12 +9%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $91 +$5 +5%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $155 +$18 +12%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Jun 17 $1 $0 -48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$4 +13%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Peace" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $113 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Early" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 Jun 15 $192 +$15 +8%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $268 +$13 +5%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 15 $328 +$39 +12%
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $250 +$39 +16%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $244 +$22 +9%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $450 −$49 -11%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 15 $305 +$29 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $34 7m
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 9m
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 9m
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 9m
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 9m
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes $1 40m
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes $1 40m
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 98¢ $128 13h
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 98¢ $128 13h
Will "Policy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY No 97¢ $17 13h
Will "Siri" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Siri" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY No 98¢ $130 13h
Will "Riot" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Riot" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY No 98¢ $130 13h
Will "Hormuz" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Hormuz" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY No 95¢ $51 13h
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 98¢ $46 13h
Will "Fraud" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 96¢ $40 13h
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Red State" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will "Red State" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY No 97¢ $243 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,712.08 · official $1,712.09 (match) · 3500 history records