Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x299b…8994
crypto · 327 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,177 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,092 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$97
Realized−$3,092
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses173 / 152
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)325 / 327
History coverage57d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 325 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,244
7 days−$2,559
14 days−$2,946
30 days−$2,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$46 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $727 −$638 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $412 −$54 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 1? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 1? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $117 −$42 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$39 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $93 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$30 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $201 −$43 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$5 -20%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$2,088
other 32% −$795
sports 2% −$198
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $89 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $52 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $195 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $104 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $104 43h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $104 46h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $89 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $104 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $519 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $111 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $452 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $104 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $77 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $80 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $104 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -65.6% -68.8% 7% 4% -48.4%
≤30d 116 -42.1% -47.6% 23% 14% -40.6%
≤90d 325 -12.1% -20.5% 53% 39% -21.8%
all 325 -12.1% -20.5% 53% 39% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 39% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 25% -29.3%
15% -35.0% 15% -36.1%
20% -41.4% 8% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.25 · official $97.25 (match) · 1338 history records