Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2998…b425 other 971 markets active 1h ago coverage 1174d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$614 (-3%) realized −$531 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%670W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$21
14 days+$18
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1,539
other 32% +$571
world 13% +$35
sports 6% −$102
tech 3% +$19
culture 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$11
economics 1% +$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.6% +2.7% 100% 60% -2.6%
≤30d 46 +66.1% +50.3% 67% 48% -3.7%
≤90d 92 +10.5% -0.0% 54% 28% -12.7%
all 880 +0.5% -9.0% 76% 24% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 24% -14.4%
10% -17.7% 14% -22.6%
15% -25.7% 10% -30.1%
20% -33.0% 8% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1174d coverage
Net worth$1,100
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses670 / 210
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions91
Markets (closed)880 / 971
History coverage1174d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 880 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 43¢ 42¢ $202 $200 −$2 (-1%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $170 $178 +$8 (+5%)
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Obama arrested before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $62 $62 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? No 26¢ 51¢ $13 $25 +$13 (+99%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027? No 90¢ 84¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 79¢ 56¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-30%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 69¢ 96¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 75¢ 75¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $203 +$7 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $59 +$11 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +68%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 +$14 +1807%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $66 +$14 +21%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $55 +$3 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $27 +$5 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $2 $0 +19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $38 −$8 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $3 +$16 +491%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $3 +$7 +270%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $3 +$7 +270%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 31 $5 +$5 +117%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 30 $18 +$2 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 30 $3 +$7 +257%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 29 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $8 +$22 +285%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $17 −$16 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 25 $0 $0 +50%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? May 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $3 +$13 +500%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $1 $0 +18%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $0 $0 +50%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by les May 19 $3 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1 +$1 +133%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 09 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $65 1h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $23 1h
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? BUY No 26¢ $8 2h
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? BUY No 25¢ $2 3h
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? BUY No 24¢ $2 3h
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $322 8h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $72 18h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 22h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 75¢ $4 28h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 22¢ $15 28h
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 30h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 35h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 37h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 75¢ $8 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $7 2d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 43¢ $206 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 91¢ $7 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $7 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $4 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,099.88 · official $1,099.88 (match) · 3262 history records