Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2997…cf48 other 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$44 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%68W / 203L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$60
14 days+$84
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$219
sports 28% −$111
crypto 15% −$79
world 2% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.0% +14.0% 40% 40% +101.0%
≤30d 23 +14.9% +3.9% 30% 30% -4.7%
≤90d 208 -12.7% -21.0% 26% 25% -13.0%
all 271 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 24% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 24% -5.1%
10% -18.9% 24% -14.2%
15% -26.7% 22% -22.5%
20% -33.9% 21% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses68 / 203
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)271 / 275
History coverage129d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $13 $7 −$6 (-49%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 17¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$31 +307%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +874%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 +$14 +77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Petrojet SC vs. El Gouna SC end in a draw? May 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $6 +$10 +155%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 25 $5 +$10 +186%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $20 +$64 +318%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Hermannstadt vs. FCSB end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FCSB win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$13 +261%
Will PSV vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Odense BK vs. Vejle BK end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 43¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $68 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $31 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 8d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $4 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $32 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 27d
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.40 · official $48.06 · 427 history records