Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2996…fd9d crypto 1243 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,799 (-48%) realized −$4,799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%535W / 708L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,381
sports 15% −$286
other 4% +$18
world 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
weather 0% −$7
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤30d 624 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 38% -24.0%
≤90d 1243 -11.2% -19.7% 43% 34% -24.7%
all 1243 -11.2% -19.7% 43% 34% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 34% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 30% -31.9%
15% -34.4% 26% -38.5%
20% -40.8% 23% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses535 / 708
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1243 / 1243
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1243 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$15 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$11 +102%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $3 +$7 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$28 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$16 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$24 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$15 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$10 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$21 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$7 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$6 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$61 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$22 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$5 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $45 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $28 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records