Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2996…90ec
other · 91 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses52 / 34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)86 / 91
History coverage575d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit18%
Chart Positions 5 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 87¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 68¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+39%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? No 86¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? No 84¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 30 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +6%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Tariff" at The Villages on May 1? May 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 23 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 16 $2 +$2 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 08 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 30 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 30 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 24 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 24 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 18? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 22 $8 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Oct 08 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 27 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 18 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $2 $0 +19%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $3 +$6 +203%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 26 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22? Aug 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? Aug 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? Jul 31 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Jul 31 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Jul 24 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 76% −$1
other 23% +$8
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 94¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 14d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $1 43d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 43d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 68¢ $1 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 43d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 43d
Will Trump say "Tariff" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 43d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 98d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY Yes 41¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $10 110d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $8 129d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $3 129d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 151d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 151d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $8 158d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $3 158d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 162d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 86¢ $9 162d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 98¢ $9 165d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 84¢ $9 165d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 91¢ $5 183d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 89¢ $9 183d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 86¢ $11 200d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 96¢ $10 201d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY No 72¢ $9 211d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY No 84¢ $8 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 25% -2.5%
≤90d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 29% -4.6%
all 86 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 27% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 27% -9.0%
10% -13.4% 17% -17.8%
15% -21.8% 15% -25.7%
20% -29.5% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.97 (match) · 183 history records