Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2996…73de
sports · 699 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,181 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,167 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,167
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses350 / 347
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions2
Markets (closed)697 / 699
History coverage147d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 697 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$132
14 days+$172
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 58¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 52¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Stars vs. Wild Wild 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline Pistons 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline Nuggets 56¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Marcus Buchecha 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Jiujiang: Alexis Galarneau vs Dane Sweeny Dane Sweeny 49¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Kings vs. Raptors Raptors 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 45¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Celtics 31¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5) 76ers 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Oilers Oilers 40¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Emilio Nava Jenson Brooksby 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks Knicks 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline Nuggets 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Ducks 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 16¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Suns 44¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-26? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Suns 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$20 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$19 +190%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$29 -57%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$33 +108%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $140 +$13 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$30 +98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$9 -84%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$10 -38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$10 -54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $218 +$59 +27%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $19 −$19 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $24 +$6 +23%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $70 +$2 +2%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$9 -84%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $33 +$14 +44%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $66 +$19 +29%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$16 -79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $31 +$18 +60%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $27 −$26 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $85 +$57 +67%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $219 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $47 −$22 -46%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$1 +5%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$4 -25%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $101 −$36 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$1,046
other 14% −$164
crypto 1% +$28
economics 0% −$20
world 0% +$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $5 7m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 76¢ $19 45m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 4¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $106 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 94¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 38¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 47¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 32¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $46 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 25¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 53¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 53¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 63¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $55 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 58¢ $14 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 74¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 73¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 82¢ $10 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 15h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 16h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 16h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 21h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +8.8% -1.5% 59% 52% -5.9%
≤30d 111 +7.8% -2.4% 59% 51% -5.3%
≤90d 450 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 44% -18.4%
all 697 -8.3% -17.1% 50% 45% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 45% -16.3%
10% -25.0% 40% -24.3%
15% -32.2% 35% -31.6%
20% -38.9% 26% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $2.65 (match) · 1951 history records