Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2995…8410 weather 987 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$738 (-12%) realized −$629 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%188W / 951L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day69.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$335
7 days−$249
14 days−$243
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$538
world 23% −$2
other 2% −$3
crypto 2% −$11
economics 1% −$5
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$18
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -72.5% -75.1% 8% 6% -26.2%
≤30d 282 -4.0% -13.1% 18% 16% -11.9%
≤90d 1139 -30.4% -37.0% 17% 16% -21.6%
all 1139 -30.4% -37.0% 17% 16% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 16% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.0% 16% -29.1%
15% -48.5% 16% -35.9%
20% -53.6% 15% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$629
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses188 / 951
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1139 / 987
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 69¢ 60¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 75¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-81%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 55¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 55¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 +122%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1699%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 27? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 21? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 29? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 27? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on April 5? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $21 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.08 · official $76.91 · 3500 history records