Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2993…a61d
sports · 69 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$52 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage605d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $20 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $124 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $253 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $126 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $9 +$7 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $7 +$5 +61%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 01 $31 +$20 +64%
Capitals vs. Blues Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $23 +$7 +31%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 27 $41 +$35 +85%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) Mar 20 $26 +$25 +99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $23 +$35 +150%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 18 $20 +$25 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 76% −$14
politics 11% −$6
other 8% +$17
sports 3% +$54
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $16 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 19d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $129 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $129 25d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 31d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $124 32d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $124 33d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 63¢ $11 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $125 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 51 +2.3% -7.5% 31% 24% -8.1%
all 67 +2.9% -6.9% 30% 19% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 19% -9.3%
10% -15.8% 19% -17.9%
15% -24.0% 16% -25.9%
20% -31.4% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.08 · official $37.08 (match) · 267 history records