Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2992…0d26 sports 64 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,145 (-11%) realized −$1,145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$814
other 23% −$366
crypto 18% −$197
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -13.7% -21.9% 35% 32% -23.4%
≤30d 64 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 30% -22.4%
≤90d 64 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 30% -22.4%
all 64 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 30% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 30% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 30% -29.8%
15% -36.2% 28% -36.6%
20% -42.5% 27% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$70 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage4d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $284 −$269 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $264 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$28 +258%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,040 −$149 -14%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $752 −$511 -68%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $199 +$72 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $230 +$144 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$24 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $233 +$208 +89%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $154 −$38 -25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $205 −$13 -6%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $58 −$45 -78%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $51 +$26 +52%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $40 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $187 +$210 +112%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $26 +$112 +439%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $97 −$95 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $25 +$13 +52%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $101 +$31 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $101 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$28 +110%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $309 +$238 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $309 +$230 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $725 −$118 -16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 09 $21 −$3 -13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $302 −$300 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,155 −$258 -12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$7 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $25 +$14 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $284 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $286 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $353 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 59¢ $28 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 69¢ $237 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Sorana Cirstea 48¢ $96 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 49¢ $102 5d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen SELL Robin Montgomery 99¢ $271 5d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 72¢ $199 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 25¢ $51 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $51 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 99¢ $138 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 33¢ $13 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 70¢ $237 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $166 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 68¢ $303 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $441 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $233 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records