Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x2990…3da1 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$128 (+43%) realized +$149 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +293% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +242% what you keep after slip
Net edge+242%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$13
sports 7% +$139
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+255.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +293.1% +255.7% 40% 40% +224.3%
≤30d 5 +293.1% +255.7% 40% 40% +224.3%
≤90d 5 +293.1% +255.7% 40% 40% +224.3%
all 5 +293.1% +255.7% 40% 40% +224.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +255.7% 40% +224.3%
10% +221.7% 40% +193.3%
15% +190.6% 40% +164.9%
20% +162.1% 40% +139.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +258% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +293% · $-wt +258% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$12 · ×7.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)5 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+13%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$139 +1352%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 13h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $10 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.11 · official $210.11 (match) · 26 history records