Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x298e…107e weather 931 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$389 (-2%) realized −$391 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate73%677W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$140
14 days+$156
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$161
world 5% −$446
other 3% −$10
crypto 2% −$5
politics 2% −$5
sports 1% −$104
economics 1% −$4
culture 1% −$2
tech 0% −$9
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +15.6% +4.6% 96% 74% +4.0%
≤30d 104 +7.3% -2.9% 92% 62% -3.4%
≤90d 516 +3.5% -6.3% 82% 68% -6.8%
all 929 +0.5% -9.1% 73% 56% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 56% -11.6%
10% -17.8% 34% -20.1%
15% -25.7% 9% -27.8%
20% -33.0% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$391
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses677 / 252
Open positions2
Markets (closed)929 / 931
History coverage160d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? No 92¢ 97¢ $40 $43 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? No 84¢ 84¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$15 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$19 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $26 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$21 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $51 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $26 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $33 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $43 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $14 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $59 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $35 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $26 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $31 36h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $40 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.60 · official $68.62 (match) · 2871 history records