Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x298d…8a5e crypto 691 markets active 3d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-8%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%308W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$96
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$216
sports 4% −$43
other 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 47% -17.3%
≤30d 221 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 48% -14.6%
≤90d 694 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 43% -18.1%
all 694 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 43% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 43% -18.1%
10% -28.5% 41% -26.0%
15% -35.4% 36% -33.1%
20% -41.7% 32% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses308 / 386
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)694 / 691
History coverage61d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 694 Trades
no open positions (143 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $59 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1650 history records