Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x298c…138a
other · 34 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$19 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$8
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage509d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 2 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Venezuela vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ecuador vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 37¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? Yes 31¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? Yes 37¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Yes 58¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Eagles vs. Chiefs Chiefs 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bills vs. Broncos Bills 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Chargers vs. Raiders Raiders 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Yes 57¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dolphins vs. Colts Dolphins 36¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Spain beat Netherlands? Yes 43¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? Yes 53¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2025-09-09? Sep 14 $10 +$18 +178%
Will Venezuela vs. Colombia end in a draw? Sep 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Argentina end in a draw? Sep 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? Sep 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Raiders vs. Patriots Sep 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Sep 08 $2 +$4 +194%
Dolphins vs. Colts Sep 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain beat Netherlands? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? Mar 20 $2 +$10 +525%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-12? Mar 20 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? Mar 12 $78 $0 -0%
Gaethje vs. Fiziev Mar 10 $20 +$27 +133%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $10 +$19 +186%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $30 +$26 +85%
Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? Mar 05 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Donald Trump say "Barron" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 05 $12 −$2 -19%
Ravens vs. Bills Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 05 $22 +$20 +92%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $18 +$14 +75%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Jan 22 $19 +$4 +20%
Rams vs. Eagles Jan 19 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$33
sports 23% −$31
crypto 7% −$22
politics 2% −$10
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 42d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 135d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Bills 35¢ $10 145d
Eagles vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 54¢ $10 270d
Chargers vs. Raiders BUY Raiders 38¢ $5 270d
Will Venezuela vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 276d
Will Colombia win on 2025-09-09? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 276d
Will Ecuador vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 276d
Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 276d
Raiders vs. Patriots BUY Raiders 50¢ $1 278d
Buccaneers vs. Falcons BUY Buccaneers 34¢ $2 278d
Dolphins vs. Colts BUY Dolphins 37¢ $1 278d
Dolphins vs. Colts BUY Dolphins 36¢ $1 278d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit BUY Yes 58¢ $10 352d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 430d
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 430d
Will Spain beat Netherlands? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 449d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? SELL Yes 61¢ $78 457d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $78 457d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 457d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 457d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-12? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 457d
Gaethje vs. Fiziev BUY Gaethje 43¢ $20 462d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 464d
Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 464d
Will Donald Trump say "Barron" during Crypto Summit on Friday? SELL No 51¢ $9 464d
Will Donald Trump say "Barron" during Crypto Summit on Friday? BUY No 63¢ $12 464d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +24.4% +12.6% 100% 100% +12.6%
all 32 +5.0% -5.0% 41% 41% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 41% -13.3%
10% -14.1% 38% -21.6%
15% -22.4% 34% -29.2%
20% -30.0% 34% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.90 · official $7.90 (match) · 58 history records