Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x298b…066f crypto 403 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,306 (-29%) realized −$5,306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%140W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$365
14 days−$436
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,594
other 5% −$117
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 25% -40.3%
≤30d 160 -7.2% -16.0% 31% 31% -17.5%
≤90d 211 -8.0% -16.8% 28% 28% -25.3%
all 403 -7.9% -16.7% 35% 34% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 34% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 32% -30.4%
15% -31.9% 28% -37.1%
20% -38.6% 25% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$40 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses140 / 263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)403 / 403
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 403 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$25 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$97 +3233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$27 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $43 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$29 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$54 +370%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$12 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$17 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$37 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$22 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$20 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records