Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2986…763b sports 874 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%431W / 440L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$813est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$92
14 days+$1,142
30 days+$1,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$2,379
other 17% −$543
world 0% +$76
crypto 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -50.2% -55.0% 25% 25% -35.5%
≤30d 94 +1.3% -8.4% 49% 48% +7.6%
≤90d 803 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 47% -8.0%
all 871 +1.8% -7.9% 49% 47% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 47% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 46% -16.1%
15% -24.7% 45% -24.2%
20% -32.1% 41% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$75 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses431 / 440
Est. fees paid−$813
Open positions3
Markets (closed)871 / 874
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 871 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $55 $95 +$40 (+73%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $79 −$50 -64%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $103 +$1,099 +1064%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +109%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $255 +$150 +59%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $41 +$41 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $51 +$51 +100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $51 +$38 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $41 +$34 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $51 +$36 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $51 +$39 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $51 +$29 +57%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $76 +$3 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $75 −$26 -35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $51 +$33 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $51 +$30 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $51 +$36 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $51 +$39 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $51 +$44 +86%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $51 +$37 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $61 +$48 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $76 +$46 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $76 +$60 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 61¢ $49 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 18h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $5 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $21 7d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 83¢ $311 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $55 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 14d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $10 15d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $10 15d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $10 15d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $41 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $10 15d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $10 15d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $41 15d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $10 15d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $41 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.93 · official $166.93 (match) · 3500 history records