trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 43% | 7% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 43% | 7% | -9.3% |
| all | 29 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 41% | 3% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 3% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 3% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 26¢ | $49 | $43 | −$6 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $56 | +$1 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 27 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $3 | +$1 | +29% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $86 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $45 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $7 | $0 | +6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 25 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 22 | $44 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 19 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 16 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 16 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 07 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 05 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 31 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? | Mar 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of | Mar 20 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Maryland vs. Michigan | Mar 07 | $15 | −$2 | -13% |