Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
29 0x2983…b2e8 crypto 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+0%) realized +$88 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate50%223W / 220L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$41
14 days+$49
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$88
world 14% +$221
weather 8% +$178
politics 7% −$297
sports 7% −$117
crypto 1% −$73
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -12.5% -20.9% 74% 11% -11.0%
≤30d 54 -9.4% -18.1% 70% 13% -8.7%
≤90d 243 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 23% -9.6%
all 443 -6.2% -15.1% 50% 22% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 22% -9.5%
10% -23.3% 16% -18.2%
15% -30.7% 12% -26.1%
20% -37.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$1,657
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses223 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)443 / 445
History coverage261d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,651 $1,657 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 18 $64 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 13 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $406 −$20 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,026 −$53 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,504 +$67 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 10? Jun 10 $122 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,475 +$29 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 8? Jun 08 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $170 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 5? Jun 05 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $116 +$13 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $26 −$8 -29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $147 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 28? May 28 $148 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 27? May 27 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 26? May 26 $97 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 26? May 26 $135 +$2 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? May 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 25? May 25 $151 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 24? May 24 $150 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 24? May 24 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 23? May 23 $145 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 23? May 23 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 23? May 23 $8 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 47m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 97¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $37 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $64 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $19 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $77 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $100 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $111 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,656.54 · official $1,656.54 (match) · 1843 history records